Every problem on this site — #324, #677, #389 first, then #1109, #357, #700 — came out of one scouting pass. This is that pass, close to verbatim. Not the polished version, the actual working analysis.
A few days before this site existed, Shouqiao Wang posted that he'd solved six open Erdős problems in five days using the same model we use (GPT-5.6 Sol). Real pickup, real skepticism too. Our question wasn't "is that legit" — it was: what actually made those six problems fall, and can we find MORE problems shaped like that, on purpose, instead of by luck?
Not a tidy cluster. #390 (factorial as a product of larger integers) used smooth-number asymptotics and a Poisson–Dickman calculation. #486 (avoiding prescribed residues) was a pure explicit construction — synchronized deletion blocks at scale 2^j. #536 (equal pairwise LCMs) reduced a multiplicative question into an additive-combinatorics forbidden configuration and invoked a cap-set theorem. #788 used seeded extractors and Trevisan–Raz–Reingold–Vadhan machinery. #1002 found a Cauchy limiting law hiding inside an arithmetic sum. #1038 was mostly Tao's own prior reduction, finished with certified interval arithmetic. Six completely different toolkits.
Not subject matter. Not difficulty level. Not "elementary." The real pattern:
Known hammer + nontrivial dictionary + auditable cleanup.
Every one of the six admits an alternate encoding — valuation vectors, finite-field kernels, rational "shots," atomic root measures, synchronized residue blocks. Once re-encoded, the target resembles an existing theorem or a finite optimization problem. The proof decomposes into modules that can be attacked and audited separately. Counterexamples to intermediate lemmas are cheap to generate. The edge wasn't inventing a new field-level idea — it was finding the right representation, importing a known result, and grinding through the awkward translation with repeated self-audit.
Good signs: a single crisp existence/collision/asymptotic question · a natural finite-dimensional encoding · a sibling theorem that already supplies most of the machinery · a recent partial result isolating one explicit missing lemma · the hard step being translation or lifting rather than a genuinely new phenomenon · a construction testable on millions of small cases before generalizing.
Bad signs: a famous conjecture with no visible reduction · a question whose first plausible route needs new prime-distribution input · broad classification problems with no canonical subproblem · finite data that looks structured but might just reflect a deep Diophantine obstruction · several competing AI manuscripts already circulating · ambiguous wording nobody's agreed on the meaning of.
Ranked by fit to that signature, not general importance — with our own live crowding checks layered in (numbers below are the scout's own inference, unverified against the forum until we actually picked each one up):
Explicitly excluded: #689 and #421, both already crowded with competing AI attempts — not our shape of edge.
Every probability estimate in the original scouting pass was labeled, plainly, "inference, not sourced" — a relative gut-check on tractability, not a calibrated number. We treat it that way here too. This page is a methodology artifact, not a results page — the actual verified outcomes live on the log.